GAME: VANDERBILT @ MIAMI OHIO 7:30 PM
PICK: UNDER
TOTAL: 41

REASON FOR PICK:
Vanderbilt is returning only 10 starters this year, including three on offense. They lost three to the NFL draft, including Earl Bennett who
was a scoring machine. The Commodores do have things together at
the QB position, and have talent at running back. The offensive line
lost five starters. On defense, the secondary is the strength led by
cornerback D.J. Moore, who was 1st team SEC last year.
Miami is back from a division championship, even though they were 108th in scoring. Look for more of the same from the Redhawks, who have a very inexperienced backfield with no real playmakers. The defense returns nine starters, including the best linebacker groups in the MAC conference. Clayton Mullins was the MAC Defensive Player of the Year and he returns to shore up the D.
Vandy is still the better offense here, but the Miami defense is solid and they look to be holding the cards here. I look for a low scoring start to the season for both teams.
PLAY THE UNDER

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Expectations! Most of us have them everyday, of ourselves as well as others. When these expectations are not met it results in disappointment. Depending on the level of our psychological health the end result is often resentment, anger, criticism, and blame.

The sports service industry provides a daily example of this psychology. The morning begins with services across America professing the strength of their daily selections. These are hyped in words such as “Lock”, “Can’t Lose”. “100* Play”, ,or “90% Win Ratio”. Along with inflated records, this advertising is meant to heighten the expectations of sports bettors whom they hope will purchase their selections. More often than the buyer “expects” the results are “disappointing”. After dealing with “anger and resentment” he soothes himself with “criticism and blame” of the service from whom he bought the selections. In this way, along with intermittent positive reinforcement of winning streaks, he is invariably ready to repeat the cycle on a daily basis. Along with the undeniable anticipation leading to the thrill of victory or agony of defeat, it is a recipe that perpetuates the life of sports bettors who rely on the opinions of others. How did we get to this point in the evolution of the sports service industry?

The roots could be traced to the 1970s, the time when pioneers of the industry originated. Among the best known of the promoters was a Boston-based firm under the leadership of the Legendary Billy Bob Dunbar. Their weekly newsletter was mailed to thousands, nationwide. Some even sent money for the right to read their promotional propaganda, which was among the best ever. It promised “inside information big game winners” on a weekly basis. It culminated with the “Lock of the Year” in early November. Their streak of 7 consecutive “Lock Winners” set the table for the promotion of “Big Game Locks” for an entire industry for the next decade. More importantly it created the aura of expectations ­ along with the underlying string of events that follow as outlined at the beginning of this article. The advent of the USA Today and ESPN in the era only served to heighten the anticipation.

Today, a generation of sports service users has become both more savvy and more cynical. For the most part the claims of Locks or Guaranteed Winners barely crosses their level of consciousness. Claims of long term winning percentages exceeding 70% are virtually ignored.

There is no such thing as a “Lock”.

WINNING WAYS

Since the early ‘90s, football has taken over as America’s national pastime without ever looking back. With that said, much of its popularity comes from wagering, with everyone considering themselves an expert. For those of you who have been successful wagering on football, do not change what you are doing. What follows are guidelines to help you succeed. They may not fit your style and are not guaranteed, but, in my opinion, any casual bettor who claims to beat the professional football line on a regular basis is a liar. Perhaps with college football, maybe, but the pros, no way!

SHOP FOR THE BEST NUMBER
I can’t stress this enough: You cannot just go into a sportsbook, check out the lines and plunk down your cash. Unless you’re using the Vegas Vic lines, you must shop around. You can escape laying or taking the worst numbers once in a while, but over the long season, it will drain your bankroll.

NEVER LAY MORE THAN SEVEN POINTS IN THE NFL
You can get away with laying big lumber in college, where the talent level between teams is huge. But in the NFL, anyone can win on any given Sunday, as the cliché states. You get the point! Don’t fall in love with “public” teams that are double-digit favorites to win week after week. They will destroy you.

BET “OVERS” EARLY AND “UNDERS” LATE
A majority of recreational bettors are “over” players, so it makes sense to bet “unders” later in the week after the totals have been driven up. This holds especially true for TV games. Oddsmakers automatically inflate totals, knowing the public loves to bet on anything it can watch.

USE POWER RATINGS
You do not have to know the names of every starting quarterback in the NFL or how many returning starters a college team has, but what you should be looking for are holes in the linesmaker’s number. The best way to accomplish this is to find a power rating you are comfortable with and stick to it. There are lots of newsletters that publish weekly power ratings. In most cases, you can line your birdcage with them, but checkout how closely they are to the posted line. If the publication is 8 to 10 points off, burn it. Do not look to come up with a play for every game. Be selective and find three or four solid plays.

FIND UGLY TEAMS
I try to stay away from the glamour teams. Oddsmakers tend to have a better opinion on teams in the top 25. Therefore, it’s easier to find bargains in the lesser-known programs. And with all the information available these days, you must be as well informed as the man taking your bet. Everyone is usually on the same side each week. If you don’t get in early, you’re going to pay a terrible price.

NEVER PLAY PARLAYS OR TEASERS
If you ever stop in a Las Vegas Sportsbook, remember that those free drinks and big fat chairs were paid for with parlay and teaser cards.

DO NOT BET JUST TO HAVE ACTION
Just because a game is on TV does not mean you have to have a bet on it. No one cares which games you play on. You should watch those games but only to pick up information for the future.

DO NOT BE INFLUENCED BY BLOWOUTS
This comes into play always after a Monday-night rout. A lot of bettors now want to cash in the following Sunday, but so does everyone else. One bad game or one lackluster performance means very little next Sunday.

YOU CAN LAY BIG NUMBERS IN COLLEGE
Do not be afraid to lay big wood in college games. You probably have noticed college numbers move much more then those in the NFL. It is common for a college line to move 6 or 7 points, while a two-point move in the pros is huge. This is because of the parity in the NFL and the wide talent levels in college.

ALWAYS FACTOR IN THE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
Casual fans often become overly impressed with teams that run up big scores week after week against inferior competition. When they finally play someone of equal talent, often they show their true colors. Who a team has played is often more important then how a team has played.

This concludes my wonderful article. Don’t forget these words of advice and hopefully come the Monday after Super Bowl Sunday, you’ll be booking a first-class cruise or putting an order in for a brand-new Porsche

Vegas Vic

www.vegasvicsports.net
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Most professional handicappers believe NFL preseason games can be quite profitable. But you must be selective. NFL exhibitions are, after all, just games for television and advertising money. The key is betting on the side that will use the better players for that game.

THE PROGRESSION PRESEASON PLAN

Most NFL teams use the starters for the first couple of series or the first quarter in preseason game one, then the backups for a quarter-plus, then the reserves. In game two, starters go one or two quarters, then the backups play one-plus quarters, then the reserves and so on. Game three is really the dress rehearsal for the regular season, with the starters usually going into the third quarter. Backups go the rest of the way. In the final game, the starters play only briefly, if at all, with the backups and reserves going the rest of the way for those players on the bubble.

THE COACHES UNWRITTEN AGREEMENT

There is a gentleman’s agreement among the coaches in the NFL preseason and it goes like this: “I will play my starters only against your starters, my backups against your backups, my reserves against your reserves and so on.” Plus, I will limit blitzes to obvious situations in the first two games. The good news is that not all the coaches agree to this all the time. Many coaches get pissed after a bad performance or two straight losses. Some coaches like to blitz any time they feel like it. And a few like to put in starters late to ensure a win.

ANGLES TO LOOK FOR

The use of better personnel is the biggest difference: either due to injury, competition, or quality depth, especially at quarterback. Most first time quarterbacks will struggle late in games giving more points to the opponent then themselves. Teams with one game under their belt fare better than ones playing for the first time. Teams starting off at 0-2 want the next one bad, because the last game is a throwaway before the season starts.

Good luck!

Vegas Vic

www.vegasvicsports.net

Pitchers With the Largest Home-Road Moneyline Disparity

We take the total of moneyline winnings/losses at home and subtract the road moneyline units. With that, we get a disparity value that indicates which teams are the best bet at home versus on the road or vice versa.

The player that stands out for us is Wolf of the Padres. He is [6-1, +5.4 units] at home but is [1-7, -5.7 units] on the road. There are not many pitchers with a negative disparity, meaning that they outperform on the road than at home… but Zito, Meche, and Blanton are a combined 3-22 at home and 9-10 on the road. So it is not that they do great on the road but rather do poorly at home.

To qualify being on our list, pitchers have to have a positive units at home/road and the opposite magnitude units on the road/home. This weeds out those cases where a pitcher may be +11 units at home and +2 units on the road but say they have a +9 unit disparity, when in reality they are just a good bet regardless.
Pitcher Team Disparity Home HmR Away AyR
Dempster(R) Cubs +11.18 +9.00 9-0 -2.18 2-4
Wolf(L) Padres +11.10 +5.37 6-1 -5.73 1-7
Jurrjens(R) Braves +10.98 +7.00 7-0 -3.98 2-5
Hudson(R) Braves +9.27 +2.37 5-2 -6.90 2-7
Backe(R) Astros +9.05 +2.21 4-2 -6.84 1-8
Garza(R) Devil Rays +8.36 +3.95 5-1 -4.41 1-5
Bush(R) Brewers +8.29 +2.16 4-2 -6.13 0-6
Harang(R) Reds +8.22 +2.34 5-3 -5.88 1-6
Shields(R) Devil Rays +8.04 +4.73 6-1 -3.31 2-5
Eaton(R) Phillies +7.91 +3.97 5-1 -3.94 2-6
Gallagher(R) Cubs +7.09 +4.00 4-0 -3.09 0-3
Duchscherer(R) Athletics +6.92 +5.10 5-0 -1.82 2-4
Buchholz(R) Red Sox +6.71 +0.87 2-1 -5.84 0-5
Millwood(R) Rangers +6.44 +4.96 6-1 -1.48 2-4
McGowan(R) Blue Jays +6.11 +1.20 4-2 -4.91 2-7
Rogers(L) Tigers +6.09 +3.29 5-1 -2.80 3-6
Lee(L) Indians -6.63 -0.24 3-2 +6.39 7-1
Moyer(L) Phillies -6.71 -0.23 4-4 +6.48 6-1
Zito(L) Giants -7.28 -7.00 0-7 +0.28 3-4
Meche(R) Royals -8.62 -6.36 1-6 +2.26 4-4
Blanton(R) Athletics -9.01 -8.14 2-9 +0.87 2-2

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