RUTGERS/CONNECTICUT–OVER 48

VEGAS VIC SPORTS WILL RELEASE ITS COLLEGE GAME OF THE YEAR THIS SATURDAY!
FOR 19 STRAIGHT SEASONS IT HAS BEEN A BIG WINNER!

JUST $49.00

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II. Winning percentages:
For years most advertised that they won over 80% of their games.
Then they got smart! Now everybody wins at a 65% clip.
It’s amazing how Vegas and The Sportsbooks
stay in business…. when nobody loses.

III. Results:
Where are they?
Actually some sites list some generalized numbers that are less believable
than The Easter Bunny, Santa and The Tooth Fairy.
Come on guys. A 3rd grader could enter these on
a daily basis. If you actually had positive ROI.

IV. All handicappers now have Inside Information:
Yeah sure!
A funny story:
Earlier this season I met with a few trainers and a horse vet
to discuss rehab on some stock that were running at Belmont.
I sent this info out to my subscribers. Later that day the exact same
analysis was plagiarized, and sent to me by another handicapper
as “inside information”.
Funny.. He never returned my calls.

V. Grammatically correct analysis.
I’m not saying you need to be Chaucer, Shakespeare or Swift, but I question
anyone’s cerebral capabilities who can’t spell, and needs to use the same
tired colloquialisms with each analysis.

VI. And Finally…..another favorite….. The Premium Picks.
Selection prices often change on a daily basis.
The premium picks are more expensive because they’re better.
That works well…
You can just pay More for the losing selections.

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Dallas is 5-20 ATS when playing in the 1st two weeks of the pre-season
Dallas is 4-7 ATS when playing on a neutral field in the pre-season
Cincinnati only allowed an average of 13 ppg on defense last pre-season

Football Season is here! Sign up today for Vegas Vic Sports Executive Service……Last Season 65% ATS….Go to www.vegasvicsports.com

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Jackson bend Win

Looking at Lucky Place

Paddy o’ Prado Show

Good luck and hope ya win the horse money!

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BASEBALL, BASKETBALL, BOXING, FOOTBALL, AND HORSE RACING!

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TAKE ARIZONA

The Longhorns are No. 1 in country against the run, the Tide’s Heisman way of moving the ball. Alabama RB Mark Ingram became a target when he won the Heisman over Longhorns QB Colt McCoy.
Alabama’s OL is big, but Texas’ DL counts on speed.
The Longhorns’ game plan will be to disrupt what the Tide does best and make them throw. Not an easy task but the Longhorns have done it all year.
Alabama has a great defense so this game comes down to which QB can carry his team to victory as most defensive games do. Texas will win outright.
McCoy leads the nation in wins (45) the only stat that really matters, and is the second-most accurate passer at 70-plus percent. He has over 10,000 more career passing yards than Jr. Greg McElroy. McCoy has thrown eight more picks than McElroy this season, but he’s also thrown 10 more TDs. He took the starting job as a Soph. after Vince Young won the BCS Championship against USC and knows this is it for his chance to win one.
If you believe in trends or angles. The No. 2 team has beaten No. 1 in three of the last four meetings for the BCS title, beginning with Texas over USC.
Add to it Alabama having the Heisman winner, never good, and crowned SEC champs. Most people in the South consider that the real championship.
The great thing about college football is that emotion is a huge factor. Alabama put everything they had into beating Florida. What do they have left a month later to get motivated for this game. Texas lots of emotion left in the tank for this one. I’m taking the points in an upset. Hookem’ Horns.

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Take UCLA

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THE PROGRESSION PRESEASON PLAN

Most NFL teams use the starters for the first couple of series or the first quarter in preseason game one, then the backups for a quarter-plus, then the reserves. In game two, starters go one or two quarters, then the backups play one-plus quarters, then the reserves and so on. Game three is really the dress rehearsal for the regular season, with the starters usually going into the third quarter. Backups go the rest of the way. In the final game, the starters play only briefly, if at all, with the backups and reserves going the rest of the way for those players on the bubble.

THE COACHES UNWRITTEN AGREEMENT

There is a gentleman’s agreement among the coaches in the NFL preseason and it goes like this: “I will play my starters only against your starters, my backups against your backups, my reserves against your reserves and so on.” Plus, I will limit blitzes to obvious situations in the first two games. The good news is that not all the coaches agree to this all the time. Many coaches get pissed after a bad performance or two straight losses. Some coaches like Jack Del Rio and like to blitz any time they feel like it. And a few like to put in starters late to ensure a win.

ANGLES TO LOOK FOR

The use of better personnel is the biggest difference: either due to injury, competition, or quality depth, especially at quarterback. Most first time quarterbacks will struggle late in games giving more points to the opponent then themselves. Teams with one game under their belt fare better than ones playing for the first time. Teams starting off at 0-2 want the next one bad, because the last game is a throwaway before the season starts.

Good luck!

Go to www.vegasvicsports.com and sign up today 9-0 ATS in pre-season already.

Handicappers like us created a term called “revenge” because we identified the importance of analyzing how teams fared against their opponents earlier in the season. “Revenge” does not exactly work in baseball because the sport is so dependant on momentum. Teams off a win are more likely to win their following game plain and simple.

We wanted a leg up on the bookies and ask ourselves a question that certainly is not being factored into the spreads. “What is the correlation between winning a game and the likelihood that team wins its next game as it pertains to the series.” Anything we find can almost certainly be used in our betting arsenal because the Vegas bookies have no incentive to adjust spreads accordingly based on the series game number, right?

We needed to get some background information before we started. Teams (overall) off a win are victorious in their following game 8707-8262 (51.3%) of the time. Keep in mind that we are going to disregard the odds of the game because the sample sizes are large enough such that we deem it irrelevant.

If their following game is:

Game 1 of another series: 2821-2597 (52.1%)
Game 2 of the same series: 2728-2641 (50.8% )
Game 3 of the same series: 2563-2414 (51.4%)
Game 4 of the same series: 468-486 (49.0%)
From our 4 test cases, we found 2 of them to be at or around the average but we found 2 that were intriguing.

First, we found that in the fourth game of a series, this team was actually more likely to lose. If that does not make sense to you, let me explain. If two teams are playing in the fourth game of a series then chances are they are division rivals and play with a high level of intensity. And if a team lost game 3, it is likely to be down 3-0 or 2-1 in the series and will look to get the final game in its pocket.

Second, we found that teams playing in the first game of a series were more likely to win. We have been harping about this a lot in our betting systems when we are betting in the first game of a series. Something even more intriguing is the fact that the 52.1% contains a large number of intersections. Meaning, two teams can each come into game 1 of a series off a win. For my purposes, the angle would be considered 1-1 because it is evaluating each of their performances separately. Now if we use exclusion to limit ourselves to teams coming into a series off a win versus teams off a loss, this is what we find.

A 1484-1260 (54.0%) record +80 units with only 1 losing season over the past 7 seasons.

The losing season back in 1999 was when the angle went for a combined -1.0 units. A losing season by the slimmest of margins! I still would not blindly bet it but combining this knowledge with other key baseball factors such as:

Regardless, there are some favorites in baseball to avoid betting. I always avoid betting on favorites that play on the road against division rivals. Home dogs are the best thing since sliced bread so I try to avoid betting against them. Thus, avoid the road favorites in the game.

Another type of favorite to avoid is one that is in a slump. For example, betting against favorites that have less than 4 wins L10 has had profitable seasons in 4 of the past 5 years. During that span, blindly betting against these favorites have been +36 units.

Favorites that I commonly avoid are the ones in the American League. The American League is stacked with many great offenses and the pitching advantage is not as strong in the AL because of the DH. Therefore I try to avoid American League favorites. In fact, betting against American League favorites playing division rivals would have won you +63 units over the past 3 seasons. Remember all those games the Devil Rays burned the Yankees in the 2005 MLB Season?

Don’t like to lose? Get really upset when you lose? You might not be cut-out for sports betting unless you can change your attitude. As you will see below, losing days, weeks, or even months are inevitable. They are built into the fabric of life thanks to the laws of statistics. The key to being a winning sports bettor is to understand and embrace the realities instead of fighting them.

Bursts and streaks are inevitable – in life and in sports betting

Don’t believe it? Think you can somehow find a way to win consistently without suffering losing streaks? Think again!

Consider the stock market. According to Money Magazine (April 2008), had you invested in an S&P 500 index fund in August 1997 and sat tight for 10 years, you’d have racked up an 88% return. Had you missed just the 20 best days in the market over that period, you would have had a 20% loss!

Think about what that means. Out of 3,650 days, 20 were big winners and the rest, in aggregate, was losers! Stock returns come in bursts. The same is true in sports betting (especially when picking underdogs in moneyline sports like baseball and hockey).

Streaks happen. Winning streaks happen. And, as much as we like to deny their existence, losing streaks happen. Even in a season where you hit an unbelievable 60% winners (as good as it ever gets), there will be losing days, losing weeks and maybe even a losing month.

Consistent day-after-day winning just does not happen. Read that over again if you must. The point is, you need to expect losing streaks. And, you can’t get too bent out of shape when they happen. If you expect them, you won’t get too upset. Getting upset only makes things worse as that emotion forces you to do the wrong thing (chase or stop). You need to stay the course, again, shooting for 55%-60% winners over the long haul.

If a losing day or a losing week gets you too upset, you are probably betting too much. You need to be able to take those short-term hits so you can be around for the long term spoils. Bet a small enough percentage of your bankroll that you can survive the short-term losing streaks.

Begin to manage your sports wagering like a business that doesn’t need a good day, or a good week, or even a good month, but rather needs to show a profit at year’s end. If you can cap out 55%+ this is the only way it can be done!

What’s the difference between winning and losing? Not much.

To further demonstrate how hard it is to “win” consistently, check out these probabilities, presented so you can get a feel of what winning feels like. The best way to describe what winning feels like? It feels like losing!

Yes, you read that right – it feels like losing, and that is why most gamblers crumble to the psyche that initializes their demise!

Let us explain. Let’s say your having success gambling. You are a long-term 55% handicapper, yet somehow it doesn’t feel like it is supposed to feel.

Here is your answer:

Let’s say you average between 3-5 plays a day, let’s say on average 4 plays per day. If you are a 55% gambler making 4 plays per day this is your statistical expectation:

WINS LOSSES PROBABILITY
4 0 9.15%
3 1 29.95%
2 2 36.75%
1 3 20.05%
0 4 4.10%

So, what does this tell us? It tells us that the chance you’ll have a winning day, after the juice/vig is considered is less than 50/50! To have a winning day in this scenario, you need to win 3 or 4 out of 4. The chance of that is happening 39.1% (29.95% + 9.15%). So, over 60% of the time you – a winning gambler – will be losing money!

Now you can see where the problem lies. A gambler goes 2-2 on his well capped plays, but after a 2-2, or 1-3, or the rare 0-4 decides he needs to make money for the day, and plays an ill-advised game. Or, he bets too much to try to catch up. Unconsciously he has just reduced his chances of being a 55% capper, even though he is!

It goes beyond basic money management. It takes a substantial amount of bankroll discipline to accept losing 60.9% of the time, in order to win. WHY? Because it feels like losing! Until this is understood, the sports bettor, even the one that can hit a good winning percentage,will show a loss at years end.

In the end, remember:

Even at 60% winners you lose 52.48% of all days you bet!
As counterintuitive as it may sound, winning feels like losing
Don’t fight the losing days or weeks. There will be many of them. Take a deep breath and ride it out until the winning streak comes along.

Siena hasn’t played since beating Northern Iowa 81-75 (led 40-19 at the half) last Saturday in a Bracket Buster game but the pointspread (Saints are two-point dogs) tells us that Siena is in for a tough game tonight. Niagara was very impressive in beating Illinois St 70-56 last Friday night in its Bracket Buster game, the Purple Eagles’ EIGHTH win in their last nine games (7-2 ATS), since losing 82-65 at Siena. By the way, Niagara’s lone loss in that stretch (like Siena) is to Rider (90-87). Lewis (16.5-4.6), who was the MAAC’s tourney MVP back in 2007 when Niagara beat Siena for the title, is the team’s leading scorer this year. He’s been joined by two Big East transfers this year, Villanova’s swingman Benn (13.9-9.0-3.0) and former U Conn guard Garrison (10.2). Nelson (7.6-4.6-5.3) returns at PG, as Niagara typically goes with a four-guard lineup (calling Benn a guard). That leaves some pressure on the 6-10 Egemonye (12.3-6.9) and he’s played well, helped out by the 6-6 Williamson (8,1-2.8) at times. Siena’s locked in the No. 1 seed and the conference tourney will be played in Siena’s hometown of Albany (not home arena). As for Niagara, after losing twice to the Saints last year (allowed 94 points each time) and by a score of 82-65 this year, tonight’s home game holds great significance. For that reason, I’m taking a shot with the Purple Eagles, who have the talent to match up with the Saints.

Take Niagara.

It’s amazing how many changes take place during the course of an NFL season. Last year the Giants were sailing along at 6-2, and everything was right and rosy in the Big Apple. And then came a few losses and 4-4 run which led to calls for the jobs of Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. A very competitive finish, a playoff sweep and a Super Bowl ring and suddenly the two safest jobs in the NFL belonged to Manning and Coughlin (now a genius). Are the Arizona Cardinals following the same path? They got off to a 7-3 start this year, including back-to-back wins over a then undefeated 4-0 Buffalo team and hated rival Dallas. After that, the Cardinals put together a 1-4 run (ouch). To cap off the season, they played premier beating Seattle, much like the Giants of 2007. That win was followed up by a 3-0 record in the playoffs and Arizona now stands in a place that no one (including me) suspected four weeks ago. Their defense was the big concern. They had to beat a hot Atlanta team that closed the season 5-1 and on a roll. That win required shutting down Michael Turner and a Falcons running game that averaged 153 yards per game. Arizona held him shy of 50 yards. The 6-point loss was the largest losing margin by the Falcons in over two months! Arizona then had to go on the road and beat a Carolina team that finished 8-2, with the two losses coming to the Giants in OT on the road and at Atlanta. The NFC South saw home teams post a 27-5 mark on the season and Carolina was the best of that group, and the best at home as well, finishing 8-0, allowing just 12 ppg in their last six on home turf. Arizona goes in there and hangs 33 on them, winning as a double-digit dog. Sure, Delhomme had a bad day, but let’s not forget about what the Cardinals offense did. They put up the most points, the most first downs, and the second most yards of any team that played in Carolina all season. And let’s not forget that the 30 points the Cards scored on Atlanta was the most they allowed all season as well. The Cardinals then returned hom e to face an Eagles defense that was expected to once and for all silence this Cardinals offense. The Eagles had allowed 0 TD passes in 24 quarters, covering a six-game span including three games vs. playoff teams and two others vs. teams with winning records. The Eagles allowed a total of 11 ppg in these six games preceding the Cardinals game. The Cards proceeded to use the Warner-to-Fitzgerald combination to score on three TD passes in 27 minutes. The vaunted Eagles blitz was neutered by Warner’s quick release. The Arizona defense has taken their lumps this season, and deservedly so. But, this defense is about as underrated as any at this point. Things have changed, yet many fail to recognize this. This was a lacking team that ranked 29th through the first half of the season, and finished the season 18th. If this sounds familiar, see the 2006 World Champion Indianapolis Colts who went for absolutely horrible on defense during the regular season, to having the best defense in the playoffs and Super Bowl. The Cardinals held the Eagles to 169 yards on their first 40 plays or 4.2 ypp. Once an 18-point lead was built, they played softer and the Eagles moved the ball. Carolina was averaging 32 ppg in their last six at home and they managed just 13 vs. the Cards. Three top running backs in Turner, DeAngelo Williams and Brian Westbrook gained just 150 yards on 42 carries for 3.6 ypc against the Cards in the playoffs. The Arizona defense has recorded eight sacks in the playoffs, more than any other team. This defense is playing at a very high level at the right time.

Pittsburgh has had problems on offense all season long, and the biggest culprit has been the offensive line which allowed 49 sacks in the regular season and four more in last week’s game vs. the Ravens. Ben Roethlisberger owns a dismal 80.1 passer rating, ranking him 24th out of 32 quarterbacks. But this game for Pittsburgh isn’t about offense, is it. Like many seasons past, the Pittsburgh defense has been their calling card this year. This is truly a great defense. They have shown they can hold top offenses down. But, they faced very few quarterbacks this season that are as good as Kurt Warner. Warner is #3 in QB rating and the Steelers faced just two teams this year with a QB ranked in the top five: Peyton Manning at #5 and Phillip Rivers at #1. The two games versus Indianapolis and San Diego saw the Steelers yield 548 yards, 7.3 yards per pass, six TD passes, and only one interception.

Warner is currently playing at a higher level than both Manning and Rivers, with a rating of 112.1 in the playoffs. Larry Fitzgerald has simply been unstoppable. All he has done in the last five weeks is catch 31 balls for 650 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 21 yards per reception. Pittsburgh allowed 13.9 ppg this season but remember, Arizona went to Carolina who was 8-0 at home, allowing 12 ppg in their last six, and popped them for the biggest total against them all season. Philadelphia was allowing 11 ppg in their last six, and nothing through the air, and Arizona had 21 points and three touchdowns before halftime. Both of those defenses were playing to numbers better than Pittsburgh.

As promised, let’s do a little math to help us try to predict the score in this game. First, how much will Arizona score? The Arizona offense averaged 26.7 per game during the regular season and they have even improved on that in the playoffs at 31.7 per game. But, Pittsburgh has the #1 defense, allowing under 14 ppg. So they will shut down Arizona, right? Not so fast. Pittsburgh did hold down some superb offenses this year (Chargers, Giants, Eagles, Pats) to under 17 ppg on average which is concerning for Arizona. But, the Arizona offense forced three teams on their schedule to give up season-highs in points allowed. They forced two others to give up their second highest and still two others allowed the 3rd most. Pittsburgh’s three worst defensive outings this year produced 31, 24 and 21 opponent points. So, it’s quite conceivable to see the Cards getting 21+ points in this game.

Further reason to believe that? Arizona played three top 5 defenses this year (Eagles, Giants, Redskins) and averaged 24.5 ppg. How have top defenses like Pittsburgh’s historically done in the Super Bowl? Let’s have a look at the last seven Super Bowl teams that owned a defense ranked #1 through #4. That group includes one #4 defense, two #3 defenses, one #2 defense, and three #1 defenses. Those defenses, which all averaged under 14 ppg allowed during their regular seasons, gave up 14, 29, 10, 23, 34, 24 and 31 points in their Super Bowl game. That’s an average of 21 points per game! So it seems that top defenses don’t generally perform to their normal level in the Super Bowl. In fact, on average, they give up about 7 points more than their average. If that happens in this game, the Steelers will give up 21 points. So, when all is analyzed, it seems very reasonable to see Arizona scoring 21 to 24 points in this football game.

How about Pittsburgh – how much will they score? The Steelers averaged 21.7 per game during the regular season and in their two playoff games, 29 per game. Arizona’s defense allowed a concerning 26.6 points per game during the regular season. That average was propped up by some horrible performances vs. the Jets (56), Giants (37), Eagles (48), and Pats (47). This right here is why many can’t bring themselves to back the Cardinals in this game. They think that Arizona is going to give up 28 or 31 or more points in this game. I don’t see that happening. Let’s look at how has Arizona has done this year in meaningful games. Not that I condone it, but this team appears to have taken much of November and December off after clinching their division so early. During that span they simply didn’t show up. Prior to that, the defense allowed a respectable 22.8 per game. And in the playoffs, they have held their three opponents to a similar 20.7 per game. So, it would seem that this team is certainly capable of keeping opponents to the low 20s. Layer on top of that the fact that they are facing an average-at-best offense here and it starts to get hard to see the Steelers putting up 4+ TDs on the Cards. When we look at how Arizona’s defense is playing, it looks alot like these defenses that Pittsburgh faced this year: Jaguars, Bengals, Cowboys, Browns, Chargers. Against those opponents, the Steelers averaged 25 points per game. And how did Arizona’s defense do this season vs. offenses similar to Pittsburgh’s? Arizona played five games against four opponents with a similar points-per-game average to Pittsburgh’s: the Cowboys, Dolphins, 49ers, Bills. In those five games, Arizona allowed 17.6 points per game on average. So, how much will Pittsburgh score in this game? While that’s open for interpretation, these numbers make it very difficult to see the Steelers scoring more than 27. And in fact, the most likely outcome seems to be about 24.

Bottom line, if you believe that the Cards are going to score more than 17 points here, then it becomes very difficult to back the Steelers to win by more than a touchdown. And, as you saw, Arizona getting to 20+ seems like the most likely scenario. Based on this scoring analysis, a reasonable final score seems to be 24-20 or maybe 27-21 or 27-24 with Pittsburgh coming out on top, but not covering the spread.

Finally, the intangibles in this game primary go to Arizona. Pittsburgh has more experienced players, but how much does that really matter? Arizona is the hungrier team right now. They are playing with a chip on their shoulder, playing the “no respect” card perfectly. It’s “us against the world” for them, while Pittsburgh is at risk of coming in a little overconfident. In addition, Ken Whisenhunt’s stint in Pittsburgh is likely to serve his team well here. It’s not because he knows the Steelers’ play-calling tendencies (heck, Pittsburgh knows his, so that’s a wash). The advantage comes in knowing the Steelers’ players very well. He knows what Big Ben likes and doesn’t like to do. He knows what schemes cause players fits. He knows things that, if used wisely, will help his team.

So, in summary, there are some reasons to like Pittsburgh here: they have more experienced players, and they own the best defense in the league – a defense that has had success even against top offenses. But, that’s about it. The list for Arizona is much longer. The scoring analysis says Arizona will keep this within a touchdown. They have a coach that knows the opponents’ players very well. They have the motivational edge. They also have a Super Bowl winning quarterback – a quarterback that no defense this year (including defenses playing as good as Pittsburgh’s) has been able to stop. The Cards are facing a team with a quarterback rated in the lower third in the league, and an offensive line that gives up sacks as often as John Madden thinks about food during an NFL telecast (they are ranked 29th in the league in sacks allowed). And the Cards, like the Giants last year, have momentum – seemingly peaking at the right time. While not a slam dunk, the value here lies on the team that with the right bounces, can win outright, getting a full touchdown to boot. Given that this game could very well end 20-27 or 21-28, I am recommending you buy the half point to get 7.5 and thus have this game listed at its current cost of -130 at +7.5. However, if you can only get it at +7, I like it there too as Arizona has a good chance to cover with a puncher’s chance at winning outright.

DON’T MISS OUT BASKETBALL IS IN FULL SWING AND WE KEEP ON WINNING.
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Don’t like to lose? Get really upset when you lose? You might not be cut-out for sports betting unless you can change your attitude. As you will see below, losing days, weeks, or even months are inevitable. They are built into the fabric of life thanks to the laws of statistics. The key to being a winning sports bettor is to understand and embrace the realities instead of fighting them.

Bursts and streaks are inevitable – in life and in sports betting

Don’t believe it? Think you can somehow find a way to win consistently without suffering losing streaks? Think again!

Consider the stock market. According to Money Magazine (April 2008), had you invested in an S&P 500 index fund in August 1997 and sat tight for 10 years, you’d have racked up an 88% return. Had you missed just the 20 best days in the market over that period, you would have had a 20% loss!

Think about what that means. Out of 3,650 days, 20 were big winners and the rest, in aggregate, was losers! Stock returns come in bursts. The same is true in sports betting (especially when picking underdogs in moneyline sports like baseball and hockey).

Streaks happen. Winning streaks happen. And, as much as we like to deny their existence, losing streaks happen. Even in a season where you hit an unbelievable 60% winners (as good as it ever gets), there will be losing days, losing weeks and maybe even a losing month.

Consistent day-after-day winning just does not happen. Read that over again if you must. The point is, you need to expect losing streaks. And, you can’t get too bent out of shape when they happen. If you expect them, you won’t get too upset. Getting upset only makes things worse as that emotion forces you to do the wrong thing (chase or stop). You need to stay the course, again, shooting for 55%-60% winners over the long haul.

If a losing day or a losing week gets you too upset, you are probably betting too much. You need to be able to take those short-term hits so you can be around for the long term spoils. Bet a small enough percentage of your bankroll that you can survive the short-term losing streaks.

Begin to manage your sports wagering like a business that doesn’t need a good day, or a good week, or even a good month, but rather needs to show a profit at year’s end. If you can cap out 55%+ this is the only way it can be done!

What’s the difference between winning and losing? Not much.

To further demonstrate how hard it is to “win” consistently, check out these probabilities, presented so you can get a feel of what winning feels like. The best way to describe what winning feels like? It feels like losing!

Yes, you read that right – it feels like losing, and that is why most gamblers crumble to the psyche that initializes their demise!

Let us explain. Let’s say your having success gambling. You are a long-term 55% handicapper, yet somehow it doesn’t feel like it is supposed to feel.

Here is your answer:

Let’s say you average between 3-5 plays a day, let’s say on average 4 plays per day. If you are a 55% gambler making 4 plays per day this is your statistical expectation:

WINS LOSSES PROBABILITY
4 0 9.15%
3 1 29.95%
2 2 36.75%
1 3 20.05%
0 4 4.10%

So, what does this tell us? It tells us that the chance you’ll have a winning day, after the juice/vig is considered is less than 50/50! To have a winning day in this scenario, you need to win 3 or 4 out of 4. The chance of that is happening 39.1% (29.95% + 9.15%). So, over 60% of the time you – a winning gambler – will be losing money!

Now you can see where the problem lies. A gambler goes 2-2 on his well capped plays, but after a 2-2, or 1-3, or the rare 0-4 decides he needs to make money for the day, and plays an ill-advised game. Or, he bets too much to try to catch up. Unconsciously he has just reduced his chances of being a 55% capper, even though he is!

It goes beyond basic money management. It takes a substantial amount of bankroll discipline to accept losing 60.9% of the time, in order to win. WHY? Because it feels like losing! Until this is understood, the sports bettor, even the one that can hit a good winning percentage,will show a loss at years end.

In the end, remember:

Even at 60% winners you lose 52.48% of all days you bet!
As counterintuitive as it may sound, winning feels like losing
Don’t fight the losing days or weeks. There will be many of them. Take a deep breath and ride it out until the winning streak comes along.

GO TO WWW.VEGASVICSPORTS.NET FOR MORE WINNING INFORMATION

Would you “bet” 25% of your entire retirement account on a single stock that had a 40% chance of going to $0 tomorrow? Of course not. Then why are so many sports bettors willing to risk 20%+ of their bankroll on a single game? It’s easy to risk too much without knowing it. Please read on to see why…

A Simple Proposition – Would you take it?
If I offered you a 10% advantage in a game of chance (55% for you vs. 45%) for 500 bets, would you take that bet? Of course you would. Over the long haul (500 bets), the law of large numbers dictates that you would end up very close to 55% winners (275 winners vs. 225 losers). If we were betting $100 per bet, you’d be up about $5,000 in the end. Easy money.

Now let’s say that I had one constraint. I told you you could start with no more than $500 (your bankroll) and if you ran out of money, you couldn’t re-load. In essence, I was forcing you to bet 20% of your bankroll on each bet. Would you still take it? Think you could still take me for $5,000?

You had better not! You are virtually guaranteed to go bankrupt in this situation. Over the long haul, you will come close to 55% winners – it’s a mathematical certainty. But, over the short term, you are guaranteed nothing. Strange streaks will happen. They always do. Over 500 bets, you could easily go 5 or 10 bets in a row (or even more) without winning. You could go 2-18 during a 500 bet session. If I forced you to bet 20% of your bankroll, you’d be crazy to do it because I would take your money like taking candy from a baby.

Yet, in sports betting, most bettors routinely do the equivalent of taking this bet! Almost every sports bettor bets too much per game relative to the size of their bankroll. They don’t think twice about laying half of their entire remaining bankroll on one week’s NFL games. The conclusion is this…

Why The House Wins
Based on my nearly two decades of sports betting experience, I view this as the most valuable “secret” there is:

THE HOUSE WINS BECAUSE YOU BET TOO MUCH PER GAME.

You run out of money before you have a chance to let the laws of large numbers work for you. They are banking on your lack of discipline. That’s the main reason (not bad picking) that most sports bettors lose and why The House laughs to the bank.

Check out this story as an illustration…

A Tale of Two Sports Bettors

Risky John and Conservative Bob each started the season with $1000 – their bankroll. They both decided to play the same games throughout the season but they couldn’t agree on how much to place on each game. John was more of a risk taker than Bob so John decided to bet about $200 per game (20% of his bankroll). Bob was more conservative and decided to risk about $50 per game (5% of his bankroll). Risky John figured that if he bet more, he could win more. And he was right. In week one, their picks went 4-2. John was up $360 while Conservative Bob only won $90. John was very pleased with himself.

Week 2 produced the exact same result. Risky John now had a $1720 bankroll while Conservative Bob was up to just $1180. John was very happy. He encouraged Bob to bet more but Bob wasn’t so sure about that strategy. What if their luck started to turn? Risky John preferred to think positively. Besides, they were 8-4 and they knew what they were doing! The first two weeks had proved that.

But then came weeks 3 and 4 in which they went 2-4, 1-3. A bad run for sure, but not uncommon during a 16-week season. In fact, losing streaks are inevitable and guaranteed during a season. Conservative Bob lost $235 while Risky John gave back $940. John now had a lower bankroll than Bob! John was now down to $780. Risky John felt the losing couldn’t possibly continue so he stuck with his bet size of $200 per game. The next two weeks they went 2-2 and 1-3.

Guess what? Risky John was now virtually wiped out – down to $280. Bob, meanwhile lost $360 on the terrible four week run but still had $820 left over. One of them was virtually out of money, the other had over 80% of his original bankroll left.

What happened next? Well, John quit. And, the unfortunate four-week run was followed by a great 3-week run where Conservative Bob went 10-3 and another 8 weeks of hitting a very respectable 56% on average. Bob ended up the season at over $1300 – an increase of 30% on his initial bankroll.

The morale of this story is obvious but very few sports bettors practice it. Don’t overextend yourself:

Don’t bet too much for your bankroll!

It is very tempting to put down a lot on each game, especially when you are winning. It is relatively boring to put down a little. But, you need to work within your bankroll, whatever that is. There will be bad streaks and good streaks in sports betting. It is inevitable if you do it for any extended period of time. Do yourself the favor of allowing yourself to “stay in the game.” Don’t miss out on that late-season run of luck because you are out of the game too early.

If your bankroll (amount you have set aside to bet with) is $10,000 and your average bet is more than $300, you are betting too much. If you have $1,000 to bet with and your average bet size is $30, you are betting too much. If your bankroll is $500 and you bet more than $15 per game, you are betting too much.

The silver lining in all of this is that YOU CONTROL THE SINGLE BIGGEST IMPEDIMENT TO LOSING. Let me say that again – regardless of how you pick games or whether someone helps you, you have the ability to erase the single biggest reason you may lose. All you need to do is practice safe money management.

So, how much you should you lay per game?
It depends, of course, on your bankroll (how much you are willing and able to lose over the course of the season). But there is a simple rule that applies regardless of whether you are a ten-dollar per game bettor or a one-thousand-dollar per game bettor: Bet around 2-3% of your bankroll and don’t ever bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game on which you have even or close to even odds. On rare occassions where you are sure your chance of winning the game is extremely high (i.e. moneyline favoritees), a higher % of bankroll is sometimes warranted. But, for most bets in which you have even odds, 5% is your upper max. There are no locks. Let me repeat that – there is no such thing as a sure thing. Any bet can lose. Losing streaks can and do happen. Even in a season where you hit 60% overall, you’ll have weeks where you hit 40%. It’s an absolute certainty.

Can you make money with this strategy? Absolutely. In fact, its required to make money. Without this strategy, you will consistently lose regardless of how well you pick games. If you hit 54-58% (what you should expect), you will lose a lot of money (and maybe even deplete your entire bakroll) if you are betting more than 5% of your bankroll per game!

If you are winning and on a great roll, your bets can increase and you can win even more. How? You can simply use a percentage of your remaining bankroll. As your bankroll increases, your bet size increases. As your bankroll decreases, your bets decrease. A nice side benefit of this is that, by definition, you can never get wiped out. It is mathematically impossible to lose your entire bankroll if you are always betting a small percentage of it.

The bottom line: Remember, bet 2% – 5% of your bankroll on any given game (more often on the low end of that range). A good rule of thumb is about 3% per game. If you aren’t as sure on a game, drop it to 1% or 2% and if you feel very good about a game, take it up to 4%. For those rare games that you absolutely love, go with 5% but never more.

I rate my picks as 1 to 5 units and I recommend you risk 1% of your bankroll per unit. So, you are always risking between 1% and 5% of your bankroll and now more. Most picks are 2-3 units