Oddsmakers have installed Clemson as a 3-point favorite over West Virginia, while the over/under total is currently sitting at 63 for tonight’s game. The Mountaineers finished the regular season with a 9-3 overall record while the Tigers wrapped up 2011 at 10-3.

Clemson has lost five consecutive games vs. Big East Conference Opponents and has also lost four of its last five games when playing in the month of January. The Tigers have also lost 11 of their last 17 games when the total posted is between 56.5 and 63 points, and they’ve lost six of their last seven games when the line posted is between +3 to -3.

Our resident handicapper Vegas Vic of Vegas Vic Sports.net likes the Mountaineers +3 tonight. Also, be sure to check out Johnny Clutch Sports for more great picks, odds and betting information.

To get some recommendations for special brews to take your Thanksgiving feast to another level, huffingtonpost.com sought out the advice of Justin Philips of Beer Table in Brooklyn’s Park Slope neighborhood, which he owns and runs with his wife Tricia. Check out his picks below and why he chose them, and follow Beer Table on Twitter to find out what beer Justin’s tapping next.

TCU and Wisconsin will square off in this year’s Rose Bowl, where the Horned Frogs have been made a 3-point favorite according to oddsmakers.

The Frogs enter this game with a 12-0 record and have much to prove. They’ve covered the spread in seven of their 12 games this year and are averaging 43.3 points per game and 11.4 points against.

The Badgers are 11-1 with their only blemish coming against Michigan State earlier this season. They covered the spread in seven of their 12 games this season while averaging 43.3 points per game and 20.5 points against.

TCU has covered the spread in four of the last five games and they have also won 32 of the last 34 games as a favorite. TCU has won 21 of the last 23 games coming off a win against the spread and they are only allowing an average of 11 points a game on defense this season.

So who does our resident handicapper Vegas Vic like tonight? Read below to find out.

VEGAS VIC 2011 Rose Bowl: TCU -3

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II. Winning percentages:
For years most advertised that they won over 80% of their games.
Then they got smart! Now everybody wins at a 65% clip.
It’s amazing how Vegas and The Sportsbooks
stay in business…. when nobody loses.

III. Results:
Where are they?
Actually some sites list some generalized numbers that are less believable
than The Easter Bunny, Santa and The Tooth Fairy.
Come on guys. A 3rd grader could enter these on
a daily basis. If you actually had positive ROI.

IV. All handicappers now have Inside Information:
Yeah sure!
A funny story:
Earlier this season I met with a few trainers and a horse vet
to discuss rehab on some stock that were running at Belmont.
I sent this info out to my subscribers. Later that day the exact same
analysis was plagiarized, and sent to me by another handicapper
as “inside information”.
Funny.. He never returned my calls.

V. Grammatically correct analysis.
I’m not saying you need to be Chaucer, Shakespeare or Swift, but I question
anyone’s cerebral capabilities who can’t spell, and needs to use the same
tired colloquialisms with each analysis.

VI. And Finally…..another favorite….. The Premium Picks.
Selection prices often change on a daily basis.
The premium picks are more expensive because they’re better.
That works well…
You can just pay More for the losing selections.

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Dallas is 5-20 ATS when playing in the 1st two weeks of the pre-season
Dallas is 4-7 ATS when playing on a neutral field in the pre-season
Cincinnati only allowed an average of 13 ppg on defense last pre-season

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TAKE ARIZONA

The Longhorns are No. 1 in country against the run, the Tide’s Heisman way of moving the ball. Alabama RB Mark Ingram became a target when he won the Heisman over Longhorns QB Colt McCoy.
Alabama’s OL is big, but Texas’ DL counts on speed.
The Longhorns’ game plan will be to disrupt what the Tide does best and make them throw. Not an easy task but the Longhorns have done it all year.
Alabama has a great defense so this game comes down to which QB can carry his team to victory as most defensive games do. Texas will win outright.
McCoy leads the nation in wins (45) the only stat that really matters, and is the second-most accurate passer at 70-plus percent. He has over 10,000 more career passing yards than Jr. Greg McElroy. McCoy has thrown eight more picks than McElroy this season, but he’s also thrown 10 more TDs. He took the starting job as a Soph. after Vince Young won the BCS Championship against USC and knows this is it for his chance to win one.
If you believe in trends or angles. The No. 2 team has beaten No. 1 in three of the last four meetings for the BCS title, beginning with Texas over USC.
Add to it Alabama having the Heisman winner, never good, and crowned SEC champs. Most people in the South consider that the real championship.
The great thing about college football is that emotion is a huge factor. Alabama put everything they had into beating Florida. What do they have left a month later to get motivated for this game. Texas lots of emotion left in the tank for this one. I’m taking the points in an upset. Hookem’ Horns.

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Take UCLA

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Siena hasn’t played since beating Northern Iowa 81-75 (led 40-19 at the half) last Saturday in a Bracket Buster game but the pointspread (Saints are two-point dogs) tells us that Siena is in for a tough game tonight. Niagara was very impressive in beating Illinois St 70-56 last Friday night in its Bracket Buster game, the Purple Eagles’ EIGHTH win in their last nine games (7-2 ATS), since losing 82-65 at Siena. By the way, Niagara’s lone loss in that stretch (like Siena) is to Rider (90-87). Lewis (16.5-4.6), who was the MAAC’s tourney MVP back in 2007 when Niagara beat Siena for the title, is the team’s leading scorer this year. He’s been joined by two Big East transfers this year, Villanova’s swingman Benn (13.9-9.0-3.0) and former U Conn guard Garrison (10.2). Nelson (7.6-4.6-5.3) returns at PG, as Niagara typically goes with a four-guard lineup (calling Benn a guard). That leaves some pressure on the 6-10 Egemonye (12.3-6.9) and he’s played well, helped out by the 6-6 Williamson (8,1-2.8) at times. Siena’s locked in the No. 1 seed and the conference tourney will be played in Siena’s hometown of Albany (not home arena). As for Niagara, after losing twice to the Saints last year (allowed 94 points each time) and by a score of 82-65 this year, tonight’s home game holds great significance. For that reason, I’m taking a shot with the Purple Eagles, who have the talent to match up with the Saints.

Take Niagara.

It’s amazing how many changes take place during the course of an NFL season. Last year the Giants were sailing along at 6-2, and everything was right and rosy in the Big Apple. And then came a few losses and 4-4 run which led to calls for the jobs of Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. A very competitive finish, a playoff sweep and a Super Bowl ring and suddenly the two safest jobs in the NFL belonged to Manning and Coughlin (now a genius). Are the Arizona Cardinals following the same path? They got off to a 7-3 start this year, including back-to-back wins over a then undefeated 4-0 Buffalo team and hated rival Dallas. After that, the Cardinals put together a 1-4 run (ouch). To cap off the season, they played premier beating Seattle, much like the Giants of 2007. That win was followed up by a 3-0 record in the playoffs and Arizona now stands in a place that no one (including me) suspected four weeks ago. Their defense was the big concern. They had to beat a hot Atlanta team that closed the season 5-1 and on a roll. That win required shutting down Michael Turner and a Falcons running game that averaged 153 yards per game. Arizona held him shy of 50 yards. The 6-point loss was the largest losing margin by the Falcons in over two months! Arizona then had to go on the road and beat a Carolina team that finished 8-2, with the two losses coming to the Giants in OT on the road and at Atlanta. The NFC South saw home teams post a 27-5 mark on the season and Carolina was the best of that group, and the best at home as well, finishing 8-0, allowing just 12 ppg in their last six on home turf. Arizona goes in there and hangs 33 on them, winning as a double-digit dog. Sure, Delhomme had a bad day, but let’s not forget about what the Cardinals offense did. They put up the most points, the most first downs, and the second most yards of any team that played in Carolina all season. And let’s not forget that the 30 points the Cards scored on Atlanta was the most they allowed all season as well. The Cardinals then returned hom e to face an Eagles defense that was expected to once and for all silence this Cardinals offense. The Eagles had allowed 0 TD passes in 24 quarters, covering a six-game span including three games vs. playoff teams and two others vs. teams with winning records. The Eagles allowed a total of 11 ppg in these six games preceding the Cardinals game. The Cards proceeded to use the Warner-to-Fitzgerald combination to score on three TD passes in 27 minutes. The vaunted Eagles blitz was neutered by Warner’s quick release. The Arizona defense has taken their lumps this season, and deservedly so. But, this defense is about as underrated as any at this point. Things have changed, yet many fail to recognize this. This was a lacking team that ranked 29th through the first half of the season, and finished the season 18th. If this sounds familiar, see the 2006 World Champion Indianapolis Colts who went for absolutely horrible on defense during the regular season, to having the best defense in the playoffs and Super Bowl. The Cardinals held the Eagles to 169 yards on their first 40 plays or 4.2 ypp. Once an 18-point lead was built, they played softer and the Eagles moved the ball. Carolina was averaging 32 ppg in their last six at home and they managed just 13 vs. the Cards. Three top running backs in Turner, DeAngelo Williams and Brian Westbrook gained just 150 yards on 42 carries for 3.6 ypc against the Cards in the playoffs. The Arizona defense has recorded eight sacks in the playoffs, more than any other team. This defense is playing at a very high level at the right time.

Pittsburgh has had problems on offense all season long, and the biggest culprit has been the offensive line which allowed 49 sacks in the regular season and four more in last week’s game vs. the Ravens. Ben Roethlisberger owns a dismal 80.1 passer rating, ranking him 24th out of 32 quarterbacks. But this game for Pittsburgh isn’t about offense, is it. Like many seasons past, the Pittsburgh defense has been their calling card this year. This is truly a great defense. They have shown they can hold top offenses down. But, they faced very few quarterbacks this season that are as good as Kurt Warner. Warner is #3 in QB rating and the Steelers faced just two teams this year with a QB ranked in the top five: Peyton Manning at #5 and Phillip Rivers at #1. The two games versus Indianapolis and San Diego saw the Steelers yield 548 yards, 7.3 yards per pass, six TD passes, and only one interception.

Warner is currently playing at a higher level than both Manning and Rivers, with a rating of 112.1 in the playoffs. Larry Fitzgerald has simply been unstoppable. All he has done in the last five weeks is catch 31 balls for 650 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 21 yards per reception. Pittsburgh allowed 13.9 ppg this season but remember, Arizona went to Carolina who was 8-0 at home, allowing 12 ppg in their last six, and popped them for the biggest total against them all season. Philadelphia was allowing 11 ppg in their last six, and nothing through the air, and Arizona had 21 points and three touchdowns before halftime. Both of those defenses were playing to numbers better than Pittsburgh.

As promised, let’s do a little math to help us try to predict the score in this game. First, how much will Arizona score? The Arizona offense averaged 26.7 per game during the regular season and they have even improved on that in the playoffs at 31.7 per game. But, Pittsburgh has the #1 defense, allowing under 14 ppg. So they will shut down Arizona, right? Not so fast. Pittsburgh did hold down some superb offenses this year (Chargers, Giants, Eagles, Pats) to under 17 ppg on average which is concerning for Arizona. But, the Arizona offense forced three teams on their schedule to give up season-highs in points allowed. They forced two others to give up their second highest and still two others allowed the 3rd most. Pittsburgh’s three worst defensive outings this year produced 31, 24 and 21 opponent points. So, it’s quite conceivable to see the Cards getting 21+ points in this game.

Further reason to believe that? Arizona played three top 5 defenses this year (Eagles, Giants, Redskins) and averaged 24.5 ppg. How have top defenses like Pittsburgh’s historically done in the Super Bowl? Let’s have a look at the last seven Super Bowl teams that owned a defense ranked #1 through #4. That group includes one #4 defense, two #3 defenses, one #2 defense, and three #1 defenses. Those defenses, which all averaged under 14 ppg allowed during their regular seasons, gave up 14, 29, 10, 23, 34, 24 and 31 points in their Super Bowl game. That’s an average of 21 points per game! So it seems that top defenses don’t generally perform to their normal level in the Super Bowl. In fact, on average, they give up about 7 points more than their average. If that happens in this game, the Steelers will give up 21 points. So, when all is analyzed, it seems very reasonable to see Arizona scoring 21 to 24 points in this football game.

How about Pittsburgh – how much will they score? The Steelers averaged 21.7 per game during the regular season and in their two playoff games, 29 per game. Arizona’s defense allowed a concerning 26.6 points per game during the regular season. That average was propped up by some horrible performances vs. the Jets (56), Giants (37), Eagles (48), and Pats (47). This right here is why many can’t bring themselves to back the Cardinals in this game. They think that Arizona is going to give up 28 or 31 or more points in this game. I don’t see that happening. Let’s look at how has Arizona has done this year in meaningful games. Not that I condone it, but this team appears to have taken much of November and December off after clinching their division so early. During that span they simply didn’t show up. Prior to that, the defense allowed a respectable 22.8 per game. And in the playoffs, they have held their three opponents to a similar 20.7 per game. So, it would seem that this team is certainly capable of keeping opponents to the low 20s. Layer on top of that the fact that they are facing an average-at-best offense here and it starts to get hard to see the Steelers putting up 4+ TDs on the Cards. When we look at how Arizona’s defense is playing, it looks alot like these defenses that Pittsburgh faced this year: Jaguars, Bengals, Cowboys, Browns, Chargers. Against those opponents, the Steelers averaged 25 points per game. And how did Arizona’s defense do this season vs. offenses similar to Pittsburgh’s? Arizona played five games against four opponents with a similar points-per-game average to Pittsburgh’s: the Cowboys, Dolphins, 49ers, Bills. In those five games, Arizona allowed 17.6 points per game on average. So, how much will Pittsburgh score in this game? While that’s open for interpretation, these numbers make it very difficult to see the Steelers scoring more than 27. And in fact, the most likely outcome seems to be about 24.

Bottom line, if you believe that the Cards are going to score more than 17 points here, then it becomes very difficult to back the Steelers to win by more than a touchdown. And, as you saw, Arizona getting to 20+ seems like the most likely scenario. Based on this scoring analysis, a reasonable final score seems to be 24-20 or maybe 27-21 or 27-24 with Pittsburgh coming out on top, but not covering the spread.

Finally, the intangibles in this game primary go to Arizona. Pittsburgh has more experienced players, but how much does that really matter? Arizona is the hungrier team right now. They are playing with a chip on their shoulder, playing the “no respect” card perfectly. It’s “us against the world” for them, while Pittsburgh is at risk of coming in a little overconfident. In addition, Ken Whisenhunt’s stint in Pittsburgh is likely to serve his team well here. It’s not because he knows the Steelers’ play-calling tendencies (heck, Pittsburgh knows his, so that’s a wash). The advantage comes in knowing the Steelers’ players very well. He knows what Big Ben likes and doesn’t like to do. He knows what schemes cause players fits. He knows things that, if used wisely, will help his team.

So, in summary, there are some reasons to like Pittsburgh here: they have more experienced players, and they own the best defense in the league – a defense that has had success even against top offenses. But, that’s about it. The list for Arizona is much longer. The scoring analysis says Arizona will keep this within a touchdown. They have a coach that knows the opponents’ players very well. They have the motivational edge. They also have a Super Bowl winning quarterback – a quarterback that no defense this year (including defenses playing as good as Pittsburgh’s) has been able to stop. The Cards are facing a team with a quarterback rated in the lower third in the league, and an offensive line that gives up sacks as often as John Madden thinks about food during an NFL telecast (they are ranked 29th in the league in sacks allowed). And the Cards, like the Giants last year, have momentum – seemingly peaking at the right time. While not a slam dunk, the value here lies on the team that with the right bounces, can win outright, getting a full touchdown to boot. Given that this game could very well end 20-27 or 21-28, I am recommending you buy the half point to get 7.5 and thus have this game listed at its current cost of -130 at +7.5. However, if you can only get it at +7, I like it there too as Arizona has a good chance to cover with a puncher’s chance at winning outright.

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Check this out:

Colorado State – WINNER
Memphis – LOSER
Southern Miss – WINNER
Florida Atlantic – WINNER
Wisconsin – LOSER
Miami – WINNER (COVERED SPREAD)
NC State – WINNER (COVERED SPREAD)
Vanderbilt – WINNER
LSU – WINNER
South Carolina – LOSER
Virginia Tech – WINNER
Mississippi – WINNER
Kentucky – WINNER
Ohio State – WINNER (COVERED SPREAD)

Record: 11-3

10-3 Tulsa takes on 12-1 Ball State in the GMAC Bowl tonight and even though the Golden Hurricane is currently a 3-point favorite, they opened as a 3-point underdog.

TAKE TULSA

This game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Missouri has won their first ever Big 12 North Title. Mizzou is 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in neutral site games. Kansas has had it tough this season and against Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Nebraska and Texas they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, outscored by an average of 24 points per game. With revenge on their minds look for the Tigers to get tuned up for Big 12 Title game.

TAKE MISSOURI FOR 4 UNITS

Listen up its that time of year when the cash is low and the bills are high, and you want to laugh, but you got to cry, when troubles are getting you down a bit, come to Vegas Vic for winners, and you won’t give a —-.
On a roll headed to the greatest Bowl and Playoff season ever! You can join us as a special offer to all www.bullzeye.com members. Normally $399.00 for the package, now $99.00 for this weekend.
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The sports service industry provides a daily example of this psychology. The morning begins with services across America professing the strength of their daily selections. These are hyped in words such as “Lock”, “Can’t Lose”. “100* Play”, ,or “90% Win Ratio”. Along with inflated records, this advertising is meant to heighten the expectations of sports bettors whom they hope will purchase their selections. More often than the buyer “expects” the results are “disappointing”. After dealing with “anger and resentment” he soothes himself with “criticism and blame” of the service from whom he bought the selections. In this way, along with intermittent positive reinforcement of winning streaks, he is invariably ready to repeat the cycle on a daily basis. Along with the undeniable anticipation leading to the thrill of victory or agony of defeat, it is a recipe that perpetuates the life of sports bettors who rely on the opinions of others. How did we get to this point in the evolution of the sports service industry?

The roots could be traced to the 1970s, the time when pioneers of the industry originated. Among the best known of the promoters was a Boston-based firm under the leadership of the Legendary Billy Bob Dunbar. Their weekly newsletter was mailed to thousands, nationwide. Some even sent money for the right to read their promotional propaganda, which was among the best ever. It promised “inside information big game winners” on a weekly basis. It culminated with the “Lock of the Year” in early November. Their streak of 7 consecutive “Lock Winners” set the table for the promotion of “Big Game Locks” for an entire industry for the next decade. More importantly it created the aura of expectations ­ along with the underlying string of events that follow as outlined at the beginning of this article. The advent of the USA Today and ESPN in the era only served to heighten the anticipation.

Today, a generation of sports service users has become both more savvy and more cynical. For the most part the claims of Locks or Guaranteed Winners barely crosses their level of consciousness. Claims of long term winning percentages exceeding 70% are virtually ignored.

There is no such thing as a “Lock”.

Since the early ‘90s, football has taken over as America’s national pastime without ever looking back. With that said, much of its popularity comes from wagering, with everyone considering themselves an expert. For those of you who have been successful wagering on football, do not change what you are doing. What follows are guidelines to help you succeed. They may not fit your style and are not guaranteed, but, in my opinion, any casual bettor who claims to beat the professional football line on a regular basis is a liar. Perhaps with college football, maybe, but the pros, no way!

SHOP FOR THE BEST NUMBER
I can’t stress this enough: You cannot just go into a sportsbook, check out the lines and plunk down your cash. Unless you’re using the Vegas Vic lines, you must shop around. You can escape laying or taking the worst numbers once in a while, but over the long season, it will drain your bankroll.

NEVER LAY MORE THAN SEVEN POINTS IN THE NFL
You can get away with laying big lumber in college, where the talent level between teams is huge. But in the NFL, anyone can win on any given Sunday, as the cliché states. You get the point! Don’t fall in love with “public” teams that are double-digit favorites to win week after week. They will destroy you.

BET “OVERS” EARLY AND “UNDERS” LATE
A majority of recreational bettors are “over” players, so it makes sense to bet “unders” later in the week after the totals have been driven up. This holds especially true for TV games. Oddsmakers automatically inflate totals, knowing the public loves to bet on anything it can watch.

USE POWER RATINGS
You do not have to know the names of every starting quarterback in the NFL or how many returning starters a college team has, but what you should be looking for are holes in the linesmaker’s number. The best way to accomplish this is to find a power rating you are comfortable with and stick to it. There are lots of newsletters that publish weekly power ratings. In most cases, you can line your birdcage with them, but checkout how closely they are to the posted line. If the publication is 8 to 10 points off, burn it. Do not look to come up with a play for every game. Be selective and find three or four solid plays.

FIND UGLY TEAMS
I try to stay away from the glamour teams. Oddsmakers tend to have a better opinion on teams in the top 25. Therefore, it’s easier to find bargains in the lesser-known programs. And with all the information available these days, you must be as well informed as the man taking your bet. Everyone is usually on the same side each week. If you don’t get in early, you’re going to pay a terrible price.

NEVER PLAY PARLAYS OR TEASERS
If you ever stop in a Las Vegas Sportsbook, remember that those free drinks and big fat chairs were paid for with parlay and teaser cards.

DO NOT BET JUST TO HAVE ACTION
Just because a game is on TV does not mean you have to have a bet on it. No one cares which games you play on. You should watch those games but only to pick up information for the future.

DO NOT BE INFLUENCED BY BLOWOUTS
This comes into play always after a Monday-night rout. A lot of bettors now want to cash in the following Sunday, but so does everyone else. One bad game or one lackluster performance means very little next Sunday.

YOU CAN LAY BIG NUMBERS IN COLLEGE
Do not be afraid to lay big wood in college games. You probably have noticed college numbers move much more then those in the NFL. It is common for a college line to move 6 or 7 points, while a two-point move in the pros is huge. This is because of the parity in the NFL and the wide talent levels in college.

ALWAYS FACTOR IN THE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
Casual fans often become overly impressed with teams that run up big scores week after week against inferior competition. When they finally play someone of equal talent, often they show their true colors. Who a team has played is often more important then how a team has played.

This concludes my wonderful article. Don’t forget these words of advice and hopefully come the Monday after Super Bowl Sunday, you’ll be booking a first-class cruise or putting an order in for a brand-new Porsche

Vegas Vic

www.vegasvicsports.net
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