If you’re in an NFL survival pool, chances are you got burned last week when the New England Patriots managed to lose in their home opener to the Arizona Cardinals. If you’re a betting man and you laid down the points you had no chance as the Patriots couldn’t even win the game outright. Not even the best sports betting minds could have predicted the Cardinals winning on the money line.

Which of course highlights the perils of betting early in the NFL season. Even with teams like the Patriots, we’re learning what the 2012 version is all about. For example, who would have predicted before the season that Wes Welker’s playing time would be reduced significantly and that there would be rumors of him being on the trading block. With the injury to Aaron Hernandez that might change a bit, but now the Patriots are bringing in Kellen Winslow so we may see Welker continue to spend many offensive snaps on the bench.

Of course this is early, and we might see Welker and the Patriots get back to their old form, but betters need to be careful, while fantasy football owners to drafted Welker high have to be bummed out.

The Patriots have been one of the most consistent success stories in the NFL, but things do change over time, so watch closely and be careful about laying down big money.