Most professional handicappers believe NFL preseason games can be quite profitable. But you must be selective. NFL exhibitions are, after all, just games for television and advertising money. The key is betting on the side that will use the better players for that game.
THE PROGRESSION PRESEASON PLAN
Most NFL teams use the starters for the first couple of series or the first quarter in preseason game one, then the backups for a quarter-plus, then the reserves. In game two, starters go one or two quarters, then the backups play one-plus quarters, then the reserves and so on. Game three is really the dress rehearsal for the regular season, with the starters usually going into the third quarter. Backups go the rest of the way. In the final game, the starters play only briefly, if at all, with the backups and reserves going the rest of the way for those players on the bubble.
THE COACHES UNWRITTEN AGREEMENT
There is a gentleman’s agreement among the coaches in the NFL preseason and it goes like this: “I will play my starters only against your starters, my backups against your backups, my reserves against your reserves and so on.” Plus, I will limit blitzes to obvious situations in the first two games. The good news is that not all the coaches agree to this all the time. Many coaches get pissed after a bad performance or two straight losses. Some coaches like Jack Del Rio and like to blitz any time they feel like it. And a few like to put in starters late to ensure a win.
ANGLES TO LOOK FOR
The use of better personnel is the biggest difference: either due to injury, competition, or quality depth, especially at quarterback. Most first time quarterbacks will struggle late in games giving more points to the opponent then themselves. Teams with one game under their belt fare better than ones playing for the first time. Teams starting off at 0-2 want the next one bad, because the last game is a throwaway before the season starts.
Good luck!
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