Category: Vices (Page 34 of 47)

The public loves betting favorites because they win. They win at about a 58% clip in baseball. The problem is that the money line odds for them are against you because you are betting with the public. Blindly betting you would much rather bet on the underdogs instead of favorites because of the value inherent in betting them.

Regardless, there are some favorites in baseball to avoid betting. I always avoid betting on favorites that play on the road against division rivals. Home dogs are the best thing since sliced bread so I try to avoid betting against them. Thus, avoid the road favorites in the game.

Another type of favorite to avoid is one that is in a slump. For example, betting against favorites that have less than 4 wins L10 has had profitable seasons in 4 of the past 5 years. During that span, blindly betting against these favorites have been +36 units.

Favorites that I commonly avoid are the ones in the American League. The American League is stacked with many great offenses and the pitching advantage is not as strong in the AL because of the DH. Therefore I try to avoid American League favorites. In fact, betting against American League favorites playing division rivals would have won you +63 units over the past 3 seasons. Remember all those games the Devil Rays burned the Yankees in the 2005 MLB Season?

Why the impatient gambler loses, and how to win

Don’t like to lose? Get really upset when you lose? You might not be cut-out for sports betting unless you can change your attitude. As you will see below, losing days, weeks, or even months are inevitable. They are built into the fabric of life thanks to the laws of statistics. The key to being a winning sports bettor is to understand and embrace the realities instead of fighting them.

Bursts and streaks are inevitable – in life and in sports betting

Don’t believe it? Think you can somehow find a way to win consistently without suffering losing streaks? Think again!

Consider the stock market. According to Money Magazine (April 2008), had you invested in an S&P 500 index fund in August 1997 and sat tight for 10 years, you’d have racked up an 88% return. Had you missed just the 20 best days in the market over that period, you would have had a 20% loss!

Think about what that means. Out of 3,650 days, 20 were big winners and the rest, in aggregate, was losers! Stock returns come in bursts. The same is true in sports betting (especially when picking underdogs in moneyline sports like baseball and hockey).

Streaks happen. Winning streaks happen. And, as much as we like to deny their existence, losing streaks happen. Even in a season where you hit an unbelievable 60% winners (as good as it ever gets), there will be losing days, losing weeks and maybe even a losing month.

Consistent day-after-day winning just does not happen. Read that over again if you must. The point is, you need to expect losing streaks. And, you can’t get too bent out of shape when they happen. If you expect them, you won’t get too upset. Getting upset only makes things worse as that emotion forces you to do the wrong thing (chase or stop). You need to stay the course, again, shooting for 55%-60% winners over the long haul.

If a losing day or a losing week gets you too upset, you are probably betting too much. You need to be able to take those short-term hits so you can be around for the long term spoils. Bet a small enough percentage of your bankroll that you can survive the short-term losing streaks.

Begin to manage your sports wagering like a business that doesn’t need a good day, or a good week, or even a good month, but rather needs to show a profit at year’s end. If you can cap out 55%+ this is the only way it can be done!

What’s the difference between winning and losing? Not much.

To further demonstrate how hard it is to “win” consistently, check out these probabilities, presented so you can get a feel of what winning feels like. The best way to describe what winning feels like? It feels like losing!

Yes, you read that right – it feels like losing, and that is why most gamblers crumble to the psyche that initializes their demise!

Let us explain. Let’s say your having success gambling. You are a long-term 55% handicapper, yet somehow it doesn’t feel like it is supposed to feel.

Here is your answer:

Let’s say you average between 3-5 plays a day, let’s say on average 4 plays per day. If you are a 55% gambler making 4 plays per day this is your statistical expectation:

WINS LOSSES PROBABILITY
4 0 9.15%
3 1 29.95%
2 2 36.75%
1 3 20.05%
0 4 4.10%

So, what does this tell us? It tells us that the chance you’ll have a winning day, after the juice/vig is considered is less than 50/50! To have a winning day in this scenario, you need to win 3 or 4 out of 4. The chance of that is happening 39.1% (29.95% + 9.15%). So, over 60% of the time you – a winning gambler – will be losing money!

Now you can see where the problem lies. A gambler goes 2-2 on his well capped plays, but after a 2-2, or 1-3, or the rare 0-4 decides he needs to make money for the day, and plays an ill-advised game. Or, he bets too much to try to catch up. Unconsciously he has just reduced his chances of being a 55% capper, even though he is!

It goes beyond basic money management. It takes a substantial amount of bankroll discipline to accept losing 60.9% of the time, in order to win. WHY? Because it feels like losing! Until this is understood, the sports bettor, even the one that can hit a good winning percentage,will show a loss at years end.

In the end, remember:

Even at 60% winners you lose 52.48% of all days you bet!
As counterintuitive as it may sound, winning feels like losing
Don’t fight the losing days or weeks. There will be many of them. Take a deep breath and ride it out until the winning streak comes along.